Astros baseball: we've got uniforms and everything.
We looked at Astros hitter projections a couple of weeks ago and the natural follow up would be pitchers. However, I specifically waited on them because some projection systems had not released their projections yet. There are still some (like ZIPS) that are not universally available yet. However, there are now enough to get a […]
13 days ago | 1 read
The 2026 Houston Astros Caravan begins Wednesday, January 21 and includes stops in Tomball, The Woodlands and Corpus Christi. The Astros Caravan gives fans the opportunity to connect with players, alumni and broadcasters at various locations as the club approaches the start of Spring Training camp. Popular Astros mascot Orbit and the Shooting Stars will also take part in the caravan. […]
14 days ago | 2 reads
A lot of emotions came down the pike when it was reported that Kyle Tucker agreed to what is being touted as a four year, 240 million dollars contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Much of the emotional response could be explained through sticker shock. I don’t think anyone dreamed that Tucker was a 60 […]
15 days ago | 1 read
Players would actually make more money under a cap system, despite ownership cries about rising costs. Major League Baseball is the only one of the four major North American sports leagues without a salary cap. It is very much a league of haves and have nots. For decades, a significant segment of MLB ownership has […]
16 days ago | 1 read
There are rumors that are growing strong regarding trade talks between the Houston Astros and the Boston Red Sox. Many of the rumors involve Astros 3B Isaac Paredes and Red Sox LF Jarren Duran. There have been several iterations of this rumor, as far as packages going back and forth, and other players that have […]
17 days ago | 1 read
Astros Fans, It’s Time to Be Realistic About Kyle Tucker Astros fans, it’s time to step back, relax and stop all the hate for Kyle Tucker because he decided to sign with the Dodgers. You need to be realistic and get past your hurt feelings surrounding Kyle Tucker’s decision to sign with a team you […]
17 days ago | 5 reads
In one of my last pieces, we discussed the concept of correlations. There are never any perfect correlations in statistics. So, while secondary average and real offensive value explains a lot, it does not explain everything. We are looking at what impacts run scoring and we need to look at factors outside of those two. […]
18 days ago | 1 read
According to Francys Romero, the Houston Astros have reached an agreement with international prospect Jack Valbrune, adding another promising young talent to their farm system. The 17-year-old Cuban outfielder, who trains at the Javier Rodriguez Academy, was officially declared a free agent by Major League Baseball yesterday and is expected to sign for a bonus […]
19 days ago | 3 reads
The final review of the 2025 season will be looking at each position in the Astros farm system. Next up is the outfield position. BEST OF THE BUNCH Zach Cole Cole was drafted by the Astros back in 2022. He got off to a slow start with some injuries but once he got hot he […]
19 days ago | 1 read
Earlier today, it was announced that the Arizona Diamondbacks had traded for Cardinals’ third baseman Nolan Arenado. The Cardinals are eating $31M of the $42M left on the remaining two years of Arenado’s deal. The Cardinals have been trying to unload Arenado for two offseasons. He famously rejected a deal to the Astros last year […]
20 days ago | 6 reads
Often, the biggest problem with complex statistics is that there is not a good enough frame of reference. I always try to include league average references for the new metrics that we come up with, but league average is not the only frame of reference available. For many Astros fans, they want to know why […]
20 days ago | 3 reads
While the Astros and Yainer Diaz find themselves in an arbitration standoff, the 27-year old remains firmly entrenched as the club’s primary catcher in 2026, but as the start of spring training nears, the question of who will back him up remains unanswered. Victor Caratini is the incumbent, but appears to be headed elsewhere in […]
21 days ago | 2 reads
By any measure, the Houston Astros are running out of easy ways to improve their roster. With the signing of Tatsuya Imai and the team operating near the Competitive Balance Tax, ownership has made it clear that more significant free-agent spending is off the table. That leaves one realistic path forward: trades. The problem? Moving […]
21 days ago | 1 read
For weeks, baseball insiders have been saying that the free agent market has been slow moving. However it only takes one big move to potentially jump start things, and we may have gotten that in the Chicago Cubs signing free agent 3B Alex Bregman to a 5 year, $175M deal. Where does that take us? […]
22 days ago | 4 reads
One of the things we want to do in the lab is to find as many different ways to explain what we are seeing as possible. The Houston Astros were 21st in the league in runs scored. They were 11th in team batting average. Therefore, something is going on that would limit their offensive production. […]
22 days ago | 2 reads
In the movie “Moneyball”, one of the scouts told younger Billy Beane that all of us are told one day that we can no longer play a children’s game. Some of us are told when we are children and some of us are told much later on, but we are all told. Father Time is […]
25 days ago | 2 reads
The Houston Astros will host the 14th annual Houston Winter Invitational at Daikin Park at the end of the month, from Jan. 30-Feb. 1. The tournament will feature six NCAA Division II universities, squaring off in nine games across the three days. Tickets for the tournament are now available for purchase at Astros.com/WinterInvitational. The tournament field features […]
26 days ago | 3 reads
The final review of the 2025 season will be looking at each position in the Astros farm system. Next up is the shortstop position. BEST OF THE BUNCH Caden Powell Powell was a 6th round pick back in 2024 out of junior college after posting some video game like numbers. He got off to a […]
27 days ago | 1 read
it is a new year and with new years come all kinds of possibilities. One of the fun parts when the calendar switches to 2026 is seeing what different projection systems have in store for your favorite team. I am a big believer in data. That is what the lab is all about. Few things […]
27 days ago | 3 reads
Legitimate prospects out of Latin America sign for at least six-figure signing bonuses, and they do so when they are 16 years old. Anyone who signs for less or signs when they are older tends to be an afterthought. Framber Valdez signed with the Astros for $10,000 as a 21-year-old on March 18, 2015. He […]
29 days ago | 3 reads
There are certainly projections for all of the Astros pitchers and some sources have provided them for Tatsuya Imai as well, but providing projections for big league pitchers is challenging enough. Providing them for foreign born players is that much harder. How good is the Japanese major leagues in comparison with the big leagues? There […]
29 days ago | 1 read
All the news and rumors for the Astros and from around MLB – it’s in here! The second offseason Crawfish Boil of 2026! Here’s what’s happening: Translated from Japanese Tatsuya Imai, Astros’ New Jersey Number “45” Decided; 23 Pitchers Including Ace Cole and NPB Veterans Have Worn It in the Past; To Be Unveiled at […]
30 days ago | 4 reads
Welcome to the first offseason Crawfish Boil of 2026! Just like a real crawfish boil – everything is in here! There’s a lot to unpack today: MLB.com’s David Adler has more on Okamoto: https://www.mlb.com/news/kazuma-okamoto-blue-jays-deal It’s a 4-year, $60M deal with no opt outs per Jon Heyman. That $15M AAV doesn’t preclude the Jays from continuing […]
about 1 month ago | 1 read
Obviously, things have changed considerably in the last 24 hours. The signing of Tatsuya Imai changes the pitching landscape considerably. So, one name that was included with the starters will now move to the bullpen. However, before we get there we need to take a step back and look at bases per out in some […]
about 1 month ago | 1 read
Happy New Year Astros fans! The Astros offseason has now officially started. It was close to 11 a.m. CT when Jeff Passan reported that the Houston Astros were signing Japanese star pitcher Tatsuya Imai. An offseason of bargain shopping and working margins in trades had just been set ablaze by Dana Brown (likely with Jim […]
about 1 month ago | 3 reads